ABU DHABI – Wars are fought not only on battlefields but also on the field of cost calculations and public perceptions. A belligerent may accept the risk of escalating a conflict in the hope of winning concessions or a quick ceasefire. This seems to be the Iranian regime’s strategy in the current war with the United States, Israel and the wider region.
By widening the scope of the fighting and threatening the Persian Gulf states’ economic lifelines, it wants to raise the perceived price of continuing the war.
Yet this approach may well backfire. By imposing so much economic and security pressure on the region, Iran is adding to its own long-term costs. It has adopted a strategy whose consequences will likely extend well beyond the current war, hampering its economic recovery, its regional relations and its diplomatic standing for years to come.
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